GOODWILL MESSAGE BY DR. ABUBAKAR BUKOLA SARAKI, CON Former President of the Senate and Former Governor of Kwara State At the Launch of the Ignite Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026
Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026: From Adjustment to Advantage
- Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, captains of industry, policymakers, and fellow Nigerians: it is a profound honour to be here for the launch of the Ignite Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026 Report.
- A document that comes at a defining moment in our nation’s economic journey I have long believed that progress in our nation is built on shared effort, shared responsibility, and shared vision. Gatherings such as this— where evidence, ideas, and collaboration converge—are essential to shaping the Nigeria we strive for.
- This is not merely the unveiling of another report. It is a stock-taking exercise—of where we are, what has worked, what has not, and, most importantly, what choices must be made if Nigeria is to move decisively from economic adjustment to economic advantage.
- The Context: A Nation at an Inflection Point
Nigeria enters 2026 having undergone economic adjustments. Over the last three years, we have confronted long-standing structural distortions:
The removal of fuel subsidies,
The unification of the foreign exchange market,
The recalibration of monetary policy to address inflation,
And the early steps toward restoring fiscal credibility.
These reforms have been difficult. They have tested public trust and social resilience. But they have also laid the groundwork for a more transparent, competitive, and productive economy.
The question before us is not whether reform was necessary—it was inevitable.
The real question is whether Nigeria can now translate reform into inclusive growth.
As we look ahead, it is imperative that these reforms begin to deliver tangible social dividends for the Nigerian people.
Adjustment without improvement in daily living conditions cannot be sustained, nor should it be accepted.
The true measure of reform is not the elegance of policy design, but its impact on jobs created, prices stabilized, incomes protected, and opportunities expanded.
Nigerians must begin to see reforms reflected in more affordable food, reliable energy, better transport, functional schools and hospitals, and dignified work for our youth.
If reform is to endure, it must move beyond macroeconomic correction and translate into visible, inclusive growth that improves livelihoods and restores confidence in the social contract between the state and its citizens.
- Key Economic Signals: What the Data Tells Us
The outlook report before us highlights several important indicators shaping Nigeria’s 2026 trajectory:
GDP Growth: Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow between 3.5% and 4.2% in 2026, driven primarily by non-oil sectors—services, agriculture, telecommunications, trade, and a gradual recovery in manufacturing.
Inflation: While inflation has remained elevated in the short term, the report projects a moderation toward the mid-teens by 2026, assuming sustained monetary discipline, improved food supply chains, and exchange-rate stability.
Exchange Rate Stability: FX market reforms have improved transparency and liquidity. With rising autonomous inflows, remittances, and improved oil and gas receipts, the naira is expected to experience greater stability rather than artificial strength—a critical distinction.
Fiscal Position: Government revenue remains Nigeria’s Achilles heel. At less than 10% of GDP, revenue performance continues to lag peers. However, ongoing tax reforms, digital compliance, and subsidy savings offer scope to lift revenues sustainably above 12–13% of GDP by 2026.
Debt Sustainability: Nigeria’s challenge is not debt stock but debt service capacity. The report underscores the urgency of revenue-led consolidation rather than expenditure compression alone.
These numbers tell a clear story: Nigeria’s macro fundamentals are stabilising, but growth quality remains fragile.
- The Structural Question: Growth Without Jobs Is Not Success
Economic growth without jobs is not prosperity—it is arithmetic. Nigeria adds over 4 million young people to its labour force every year. Yet job creation remains insufficient, informal, and low productivity.
The outlook report is unambiguous:
If Nigeria does not aggressively expand labour-absorbing sectors, growth will deepen inequality and social tension. Nigeria’s growth challenge is not a mystery. - Priority Sectors
The growth imperative sectors where Nigeria must win are :
Agriculture and agro-processing,
o Agriculture is one of Nigeria’s most under-leveraged growth engines, employing over 35% of the population yet constrained by low productivity, post-harvest losses, weak logistics, and limited access to finance and technology.
o Mechanization, modern storage and logistics, and the development of agro-processing zones and export-oriented value chains that retain value locally.
o Beyond its social importance, agriculture is central to macroeconomic stability: food security is Nigeria’s most effective inflation-management tool, a substitute for imports, and a source of foreign exchange. o The current security challenge is also a factor in addressing agro production.
Manufacturing, particularly light manufacturing linked to regional value chains under AfCFTA. industrial parks, Special economic zones;
Energy and gas-to-power, as the backbone of industrialization; Nigeria’s vast gas reserves position us uniquely to deliver: Reliable domestic power, competitive industrial energy and cleaner transition fuels.
Digital services and the creative economy, where Nigerian youth already compete globally.
Infrastructure and Housing: Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit—estimated at over $100 billion annually—represents both a challenge and an investment opportunity. Transport, housing, urban infrastructure, and social infrastructure must be delivered through bankable, privatesector-led models
- Mobilizing Capital for Development: The Central Challenge
Nigeria’s development challenge is not a scarcity of opportunities, but the ability to mobilise long-term capital at the scale, speed, and cost required to transform those opportunities into tangible outcomes.
Public finance alone is neither sufficient nor sustainable to meet Nigeria’s infrastructure, industrial, and social investment needs.
The imperative before us is to deliberately unlock, deepen, and align multiple pools of capital—domestic, private, and development finance—around a coherent national growth agenda.
Domestic Capital
Nigeria’s pension assets now exceed ₦20 trillion, representing one of the largest pools of long-term capital on the continent. Yet only a marginal share of these funds is channelled into infrastructure or productive sectors.
Unlocking this capital will require a systematic effort to de-risk projects, improve project preparation and bankability, and expand credible capital-market instruments such as green bonds, infrastructure bonds, securitisisation structures, and credit enhancement mechanisms that meet institutional investors’ risk and return thresholds.
Private and Foreign Capital
For private and foreign capital, the message is clear: investors respond to clarity, consistency, and credibility. Recent reforms—exchange-rate unification, fuel subsidy removal, and greater fiscal transparency—have begun to reset investor perceptions and restore confidence in Nigeria’s policy direction. The next phase must focus on entrenching these gains through unwavering respect for contract sanctity, predictable and transparent regulation, efficient dispute resolution, and strong regulatory institutions that outlive political cycles. Capital flows not to announcements, but to environments where rules are clear and reliably enforced.
Development Finance Institutions
Development Finance Institutions remain essential catalysts in this ecosystem. Their role is not to crowd out private capital, but to absorb early-stage risk, provide concessional and patient capital, strengthen project pipelines, and crowd in commercial funding at scale. Used strategically, DFI and concessional resources can accelerate investment into priority sectors—energy, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, and climate-aligned projects—while reinforcing, rather than substituting for, the hard work of reform. In this way, capital mobilization becomes not just a financing exercise, but a cornerstone of Nigeria’s long-term economic transformation.
- The Role of the State: From Operator to Enabler
Having served at the highest level of legislative responsibility, I am deeply convinced that Nigeria’s next phase of growth will depend fundamentally on redefining the role of the state—and, at the very center of that redefinition, the uncompromising enforcement of the rule of law.
No economy can grow sustainably where rules exist only on paper, contracts are negotiable after execution, or institutions bend to political convenience. Markets do not respond to rhetoric; they respond to certainty, fairness, and predictability.
Government must therefore do a few critical things—and do them deliberately. It must set clear and coherent rules, but more importantly, it must enforce those rules consistently and without exception. It must uphold the sanctity of contracts, ensure swift and credible dispute resolution, and demonstrate—through action, not statements—that no individual or entity is above the law. Alongside this, the state must focus its resources on investing in essential public goods such as power, transport, education, and healthcare, while deliberately creating space for private capital to participate and thrive, rather than crowding it out.
We must move decisively away from a state that seeks to control markets to one that enables them, and that transition cannot occur without regulatory certainty, respect for institutional independence, and a disciplined separation between politics and economic management.
The rule of law is not an abstract ideal; it is an economic imperative. It lowers the cost of capital, reduces risk premiums, attracts long-term investment, and builds trust between citizens, investors, and the state. If Nigeria is serious about unlocking growth and mobilising capital at scale, then the enforcement of the rule of law must be intentional, consistent, and visible. We can no longer afford to pay lip service to it—our economic future depends on it.
No economic outlook is complete without addressing governance. Markets respond not just to numbers, but to credibility.
Credibility is built when:
Budgets are realistic,
Policies are predictable,
Data is transparent,
And institutions outlive administrations.
Nigeria’s greatest economic asset is not oil, gas, or even its population—it is trust, and trust must be earned consistently.
- Closing: A Call to Leadership
Let me conclude with this reflection.
Economic transformation is not an event—it is a sequence of disciplined decisions, taken repeatedly, often without applause.
History will not judge us by how bold our announcements were, but by how faithfully we implemented difficult choices.
Nigeria has the talent.
Nigeria has the scale.
Nigeria has the opportunity.
What we require now is leadership with clarity, courage, and continuity.
I commend the authors of this outlook report for grounding optimism in evidence and realism. May it serve not only as a diagnostic tool, but as a guide for action.
Thank you, and may the Federal Republic of Nigeria continue on the path to stability, prosperity, and shared progress.
God bless Nigeria
